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“The Bettor Line” Sports Newsletter by Kelso Sturgeon, Wed, October 5

THE BETTOR LINE

Weekly Newsletter From Professional Handicapper

KELSO STURGEON

Contact me at Vegassportsmasters.pro or call or text me at 1-702-420-5074 or 1-646-526-2559. ALL MAJOR CREDIT CARDS ACCEPTED

Volume One, Edition Eight

October 6, 2022

4-0 With College And NFL 100-Unit Game Of Week

Plays Last Two Weekends…Win Two More This Weekend

Both Teams Have 95% Chance To Win

Dodgers, Astros Favored To Make It To World Series

As Revised Playoffs Begin Friday Under New Format

World Series Package Just $99

Winning In College Football All About Players

Winning In NFL is All About Coaches

Best Bets 2-1 In Colleges, 3-0 In NFL Last Weekend

Bills Remain +410 Favorite To Win Super Bowl

KC 2nd Choice At +680, As Packers Take 3rd Spot at +980

In Other Words $100 Bet On Bills Would Return $410

No Off Weeks In SEC And We’re About To Find Out

If Former Notre Dame Coach Brian Kelly

Can Cut It At LSU Where Many Have Failed

By Kelso Sturgeon

Successful Handicapper For Last 40-Plus Years

The changing winds of college football and the NFL are on my mind as I handicap the weekend’s 77 games—15 in the NFL and 62 in the colleges. As usual, it is a monumental undertaking but I proved again last weekend that I am up to it. I had an excellent Sunday in the NFL, winning another 100-unit Game of the Week contest as the Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) beat the Denver Broncos 32-23, leaving me 4-0 in 100-unit bets the past two weekends.

My Best Bets Football Club went 3-0 in the NFL on Sunday and in the 2-1 colleges Saturday

4-0 With 100-Unit Game Of Week Bets

Last Two Weekends

10/2…100 Units…Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) 32, Denver Broncos 23 (Won)

10/1…100 Units…UTEP Miners (-4) 41, Charlotte 49ers 35 (Won)

9/25…100 Units…Atlanta Falcons (+1) 27, Seattle Seahawks 23 (Won)

9/24…100 Units…UCLA Bruins (-21.5) 45, Colorado Buffaloes 17 (Won)

I am confident I will go 2-0 again this weekend with my 100-unit Game of the Week plays. You can win them for $50 each or in a package for $75. All major credit cards accepted.

Best Bets Club 5-1 Last Weekend

(All Plays 15 Units)

Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) 20, Buffalo Bills 23 (Won)

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) 29, Jacksonville Jaguars 21 (Won)

Kansas City Chiefs (+2) 42, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 (Won)

Kentucky Wildcats (+6.5) 19, Ole Miss 22 (Won)

Auburn Tigers (+8) 17, LSU Tigers 21 (Won)

N.C. State Wolfpack (+6.5) 20, Clemson 30 Lost)

My three college releases on Saturday will be highlighted by the ACC contest that finds Florida State (4-1) at #14 North Carolina (4-0), a nationally televised affair. On Sunday’s 3-0 NFL menu, highlight of the will be the the Sunday night game that finds the Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at the Baltimore Ravens (2-2). Also toying with adding to the NFL menu an underdog that seems primed to get it done. Just need to do more research.

I am confident I will have another winning weekend—hopefully 6-0 this time– You can win each day’s plays for just $15 or get them in a package for $25. All major credit cards accepted.

Baseball Playoffs Begin Friday With Dodgers Favored

To Win World Series…Aren’t They Always?

The Major League Baseball playoffs begin Friday with the wild card rounds and, as usual, the very rich Los Angeles Dodgers are the +320 favorites to make it to the World Series and win it. Second choice are the Houston Astros at +380. The defending champion Atlanta Braves are the third choice at +520, the Yankees in the fourth spot at +800. Longest price of the 12 playoff teams are the Cleveland Guardians at +3500.

The Dodgers are the #1 seed in the National League, the Astros #1 in the American League and that means they will have the home field advantage for as long as they are alive in the post-season. Heading into the final game of the season, L.A. had won 110 games, Houston 105.

The MLB Postseason bracket is set. All the teams have clinched and all the seeds are locked in. The only thing left to find out is the game times, with all four Wild Card Series set to start on Friday.

Reminder: As part of the new collective bargaining agreement with the Players Association, Major League Baseball expanded the postseason field from 10 to 12 teams ahead of the 2022 season. Both the AL and NL now have three Wild Card berths (up from two), with the top two seeds in each league receiving first-round byes. The other teams will pair up for the best-of-three Wild Card Series, in which all three games will be played at the home of the higher seed, with winners advancing to the Division Series.

FINALIZED POSTSEASON MATCHUPS
AL Wild Card Series (starts Oct. 7)

Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
Rays (6) at Guardians (3)
Mariners (5) at Blue Jays (4)

Astros (1) and Yankees (2) have byes

NL Wild Card Series (Oct. 7)
Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
Phillies (6) at Cardinals (3)
Padres (5) at Mets (4)

Dodgers (1) and Braves (2) have byes

AL Division Series (starts Oct. 11)
Best-of-five format
Mariners/Blue Jays at Astros
Rays/Guardians at Yankees

NL Division Series (starts Oct. 11)
Best-of-five format
Padres/Mets at Dodgers
Phillies/Cardinals at Braves

As noted, all games and special programs available each day at Vegassportsmasters.pro or call or text me at 1-702-420-5074 or 1-646-526-2559 as are all the details about my special football packages.

Success At The Highest Level In College

Football Is Based On Getting Players While NFL It’s Coaches

The above heading is absolutely true with one exception—the Southeastern Conference, where you need both the players and the coaches. The competition is so fierce that a coach must be one of the best to survive. I know this first hand from my time serving as the Southern Regional Sports Editor for the Associated Press, responsible for covering the SEC. Later, I recruited and scouted in that conference and am well versed in what it takes to survive. Many coaches who believe they are up to the task fail in spectacular fashion..

The latest example of failure in an SEC coaching spot was Brett Bielema who was hired out of the Big Ten after a blue ribbon stint that saw him challenge Ohio State and Michigan for the top dog spot, including three conference championships. He said he wanted to coach in the SEC to show the world he could compete with anyone at any level. He burned out and today is once again successful in the Big Ten at Illinois.

The truly outstanding coaches who took the job in Fayetteville and washed out included Hall of Famer Lou Holtz, Danny Ford, Ken Hatfield and John L. Smith, just to name a few. This brings us to former Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly who is off to a 4-1 start at Baton Rouge with a season-opening 24-23 home loss to Florida State before going 4-0 against patsies Southern and New Mexico and getting the better of #23 Mississippi and Auburn.

Looks rather decent to me, but the test is about to begin, with #8 Tennessee Saturday, followed by a trip to Florida, then home again to #9 Ole Miss and #1 Alabama, and then to Arkansas. This is a perfect example of heat time that can wilt most coaches. Things get hotter with each game, with no time off to rest and recover. Most of all, the sadistically devoted LSU is watching and allowing for any missteps. At every single SEC school, with the exception of Vanderbilt, where the ability to read and write is required, winning is all that matters.

If Kelly survives these five games with a winning record, he may last a while. However, it must be remembered Kelly succeeded a coach who just two years before won a national champion and from the past the Tigers chased Hall of Fame coach Charlie McClendon, who was a big-time winner, because he could not Alabama, coached by legendary Paul “Bear” Bryant.

As a last reminder, every single SEC team comes to every game ready to play from the get-go and intended to destroy its opponent.

NFL Handicapping Notes And Thoughts

Few people realize Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady, considered the NFL Goat, was a 6th round draft choice from Michigan where he was the starter as a junior but shared that job as a senior.

–14 of 15 Week #4 games had a one-score differential in the 4th quarter. No one said it would be easy to win, let alone cover.

–Denver RB Melvin Gordon is skating on thin ice but will start again tomorrow night against Indianapolis. He has fumbled four times in the last two games, with one of those drops resulting in a 72-yard return for a TD. He will be in action only because Javonte Williams suffered a season ending injury.

–The Colts offense line was the pride and joy in Indianapolis but the glimmer is off that rose—something revealed in the play of RB Jonathan Taylor, He rushed for 161 yards in an opening season tie with Houston but in the next three games has a total of 167. No blockers, no success.

–What’s going on with defending Super Bowl champions, the Los Angeles Rams? In last week’s 24-9 loss at San Francisco, the 49ers sacked Rams QB seven times and a quick check of NFL stats shows the team near the bottom in most important categories. The are 29th in points per game (17.5), 28th in total yards per game (294.0), 30th in rush yards per game (68.5) and 28th in turnovers (2.3 per game). There is a reason Los Angeles has scored fewer that 20 points in three of its last four games.

–Rookie Kenny Pickett will get the start for the Pittsburgh Steelers in their Sunday game at Buffalo, the favorite to win the Super Bowl. He’s talented but one must ask how will will fare against a Bills defense that is physical to the extreme and takes no prisoners.

All games and special programs available each day at Vegassportsmasters.pro or call or text me at 1-702-420-5074 or 1-646-526-2559 as are all the details about my special football-baseball packages.

ALL MAJOR CREDIT CARDS ACCEPTED

Sports Betting Newsletter by Jack Clayton, Wednesday, Oct 5

The imaginary basketball arena is modelled and rendered.

October 5, 2022  

Sports Betting Motivation, Doomsday ‘D’, Texas A&M/Alabama

by Jack Clayton

 The Detroit Lions are No. 1 in the NFL in total yards (436.8 per game) after busting out for 45 points and 520 yards Sunday. Very impressive, except for one thing: the defense gave up 48. The Lions’ defense decided to take Sunday off (again) as Seattle torched them for 555 yards (235 rushing). Seattle was 9-of-12 on third down putting Detroit last in the NFL in that category (52.8%), along with yards and points surrendered (35.2 ppg). Teams that can’t stop anybody are worth a look at OVER the total, even against struggling offenses, and Detroit is a classic example with all four of their games sailing OVER. They’re also 4-14 ATS after three consecutive contests where 50+ total points were scored. The Lions play the Patriots on Sunday, a team down to rookie third-string QB Bailey Zappe. This means the Pats will only get 40 points and 500 yards.

  Seattle is allowing the second-most points in the NFL (28.8 per game) and the second-most yards. Last year, the Seahawks were #25 in total yards allowed. At least QB Geno Smith (6 TDs, 2 INTs) has played well completing over 77% of his passes. The Seahawks are 46-29 OVER versus teams averaging 24+ points. Seattle is in the middle of a stretch playing four of six on the road. Pete Caroll is 52-30 ATS as an underdog, plus 48-35 OVER the total as a dog.

  The Kansas City/Tampa Bay Super Bowl rematch was also an offensive show in a 41-31 Chiefs victory on the road as an underdog. Tampa Bay’s defense is very good but had a bad game as Kansas City had a whopping 189-3 edge in rushing yards. The Bucs want to run more this season, but talk is cheap. Tom Brady threw 52 times and the ground “attack” had just 6 carries as they were behind all game. Would you believe Tampa Bay is now 42-68 ATS in October games? And Andy Reid is 76-50 ATS as an underdog.

  The Carolina Panthers have now gone three straight games UNDER the total. Despite adding QB Baker Mayfield (4 TDs, 3 INTs), this offense is looking uglier every week scoring 19, 14, and 16 points. They’re last in the NFL in converting third downs (25.5%). For a team that is currently on a three-game homestand, it’s been a really bad start. The Panthers host the 49ers on Sunday and Carolina is 60-39 UNDER the total at home in the first half of the season. They were outgained 338-220 by Arizona and Carolina is 30-15 ATS at home after being outgained by 100+ total yards in the last game.

Sports Betting Motivation: Motivation is a huge wagering advantage that isn’t visible by simply examining statistics. Unbeaten TCU was certainly motivated as a home underdog knocking off No. 18 Oklahoma. Would you believe Kansas now has better odds (+1200) of winning the Big 12 than Oklahoma (+1500)?  Another motivated team was Georgia Tech, who were playing their first game under interim coach Brent Key. G-Tech was a 22-point underdog but knocked off No. 24 Pitt in the rain, 26-21. The total also dropped because of the rain from 50 to 48- and squeezed out a win. 29-point home underdog Missouri was clearly motivated giving No. 1 Georgia all it could handle in a 26-22 final. Mizzou made a bowl last season and was coming off an OT loss to Auburn. Their motivation was certainly better than a year ago when Georgia whipped Missouri, 43-6. From a betting perspective, having multiple factors mesh together with one team against the number is important. But sometimes, feeling disrespected as a home underdog is motivation enough!

The football season is rolling and so is Vegas Sports Masters, primed to keep the WINNING going! And basketball is just around the corner, so get on board by calling 702-420-5074 or online at VegasSportsMaster.pro.

Doomsday ‘D’: The Dallas Cowboys (16-6 ATS run) have been forced to play conservatively on offense because of the injury to QB Dak Prescott with backup QB Cooer Rush behind center. They ran 29 times and passed 27 times against Washington Sunday, running for just 62 yards (2.1 ypc). But it didn’t matter in a 25-10 victory, now 3-1 UNDER the total with a Top 10 defense augmenting that conservative offense. The Dallas ‘D’ hasn’t given up more than 19 points in a game. If there are concerns on the horizon it would be on the Dallas offensive line. All-Pro RG Zack Martin hurt is right leg and left for a while. The Cowboys are #19 in the NFL in rushing, #25 in yards per rush (4.0). RB Ezekiel Elliott is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry after slumping to 4.2 per carry in 2021. The Cowboys begin a two-game road trip at the Rams and Eagles. Those defenses are in the Top 10 in the league on third down. The Rams are 23-42 ATS against teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game, plus on a 16-5 run UNDER the total at home.

Totals Downturn: The temperature is dropping and so did college football totals! True, it’s not that much colder but there was far more money wagered on games UNDER the total this weekend partly because of the hurricane and rainy conditions. The Georgia Southern/Coastal Carolina dropped from 68 to 65 and, despite a wild fourth quarter where 33 points were tallied, the money move still favored bettors in a narrow 34-30 Coastal Carolina victory. It’s a good idea to pay attention to significant total movement on smaller conferences as they’re more likely to attract Wise Guy action. South

Alabama/Louisiana Lafayette slid from 50 to 47 and cashed easily in a 20-17 South Alabama win. Lafayette also cashed as a +8 home dog. The same story unfolded in the MAC as Miami/Buffalo went from 53- to 50- in a 24-20 Buffalo win and the Ohio/Kent total sailed from 69 to 65- and the UNDER got the money in a 31-24 Kent victory. The largest total moves in the Big 10 also cashed as Michigan State/Maryland went from 60 to 57- in a 27-13 Terrapin win and cover at home, while Iowa’s offense continues to sputter in a 27-14 loss to Michigan. That total in that game slid from 43 to 42- and just made it. Virginia/Duke went from 57 to 53- and landed smack in the middle in a 38-17 final, showcasing how it pays to search for the best number. The only significant OVER move was also a winner as the Oklahoma/TCU total sailed from 67- to 70 and underdog TCU won in a blowout, 55-24.

Texas A&M/Alabama (Saturday): Texas A&M certainly gets up to play Top 20 teams, knocking off No. 13 Miami (17-9) and No. 10 Arkansas (23-21). Of course, they’ve also lost to unranked Mississippi State (42-24) and Appalachian State (17-14). QB Max Johnson has yet to throw a pick, though he was sacked 4 times last week and injured his hand. The Mississippi State offense rolled up 473 yards. Texas A&M is 20-42 ATS as a road dog. Alabama (5-0) is rolling after a 49-26 rout at Arkansas with 555 yards (317 rushing). Heisman Trophy-winning QB Bryce Young left with a shoulder injury but reports are he’ll be OK for this weekend. ‘Bama only lost two games last season, but one was to Texas A&M, 41-38, as a 17-point favorite. The Crimson Tide lost despite 522 total yards on a field goal on the final play. “Everyone needs to remember how they feel and not forget it,” Coach Nick Saban said that night. I’m sure he’ll be reminding all the players about it this week. Alabama is 32-13 UNDER the total at home after five or more straight victories.

Bengals/Ravens (Sunday): Cincinnati (10-2 ATS run) has shaken off the post-Super Bowl loss blues to win two straight. They have some extra time to prepare after a 27-15 Thursday win over Miami. QB Joe Burrow (8 TDs, 4 INTs) leads this pass-first offense with WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The ground game is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and Burrow has been sacked 16 times. The Bengals are Top 11 defensively in yards and points allowed, on a 36-17-2 run UNDER the total on the road. They’re also 20-8 UNDER away versus teams that average 27+ points. Despite a 2-2 record, Baltimore is playing well behind QB Lamar Jackson (11 TDs, 4 INTs). He leads the Ravens in rushing (316 yards) with the team averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The defense has been shaky, giving up 42 points to Miami and blowing a 20-3 lead in Sunday’s 23-20 loss at home to Buffalo. This will be the first meeting since January 2021, a Buffalo 17-3 win at home.

VegasSportsMasters

Jack Clayton, staff writer

Joe Mac’s Review/Preview Sports Newsletter, Tuesday, October 4

NFL WEEK 4 WRAPS UP

WITH THE NINERS GOBBLING UP

A 24-9 WIN / COVER AGAINST THE LA RAMS …

PLUS, WE PREVIEW THURSDAY NITE’S

COLTS VS. BRONCOS BASH …

AND IT’S Q&A TIME IN THE COLLEGES

WHERE ONLY A HANDFUL OF TEAMS ARE

STILL UNBEATEN VERSUS THE MIGHTY SPREAD

Okay, so you had to love it last night when ESPN analyst Troy Aikman broke out the ole Dandy Don Meredith tune … “Tune out the lights, the party’s over.”

HOLLIS “HARVARD BARNHART CRUSHING VEGAS BOOKS
JUST COMPLETED TWO WEEK 19-4 BOOKIE BLITZ! 


Monday, 10/3
49ers (-2.5) over Rams – 24-9 WIN
Sunday. 10/2
Jets (+3.5) over Steelers – 24-20 WIN
Falcons (+1) over Browns – 23-20 WIN
Seahawks (+3.5) over Lions – 48-45 WIN
Patriots (+9.5) over Packers – 24-27 WIN
Colts (-3.5) over Titans – 17-24 Lose
Saturday, 10/1
North Carolina (-9.5) over Virginia Tech – 41-10 WIN
San Jose State (-3) over Wyoming – 33-16 WIN
Kentucky (+6.5) over Ole Miss – 19-22 WIN
Stanford (+17) over Oregon – 27-45 Lose
Iowa State (-3) over Kansas – 11-14 Lose
Monday. 9/26
Cowboys (+1) over Giants – 23-16 WIN
Sunday. 9/25
Colts (+5.5) over Chiefs – 20-17 WIN
Broncos (+1.5) over 49ers – 11-10 WIN
Packers (+1) over Buccaneers – 14-12 WIN
Falcons (+1) over Seahawks – 27-22 WIN
Vikings (-6) over Lions – 28-24 Lose
Saturday, 9/24

*Wake Forest (+7) over Clemson – 45-51 WIN
UNLV (-3) over *Utah State – 34-24 WIN
Minnesota (-3) over *Michigan State – 34-7 WIN
*Texas Tech (+7) over Texas – 37-34 WIN
*Washington State (+6.5) over Oregon – 41-44 WIN
Thursday, 9/22
Bengals (-3.5) over Dolphins – 27-16 WIN 

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Sure enough, the San Francisco 49ers had plenty of fourth-quarter breathing room after that electric pick-six play with six-plus minutes left in SF’s sturdy 24-9 win /cover against the 2-point underdog Los Angeles Rams and – while the Niners put the hammer down in this NFC West battle to put a capper on NFL Week 4 – you do have to wonder if very soon the “party” is gonna be over for perennial playoff teams / contenders New England and Pittsburgh.

Both lost uber-tough games last Sunday – the Patriots going down in OT 27-24 in Green Bay while the Steelers blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead en route to a 24-20 home loss against the 3-point pup New York Jets. For record’s sake, both the Steelers and Pats are 1-2-1 ATS (against the spread) so far and looking as if they could each lose double-digit games this year … both SU (straight-up) and ATS. Stay tuned.

Editor’s Note:

The week-to-week NFL Favorites vs. The Spread results for this 2022 season looks like this while heading into Thursday Night:

WEEK # FAVS VS SPREAD

Week 1 8-8-0

Week 2 5-10-1

Week 3 5-10-1

Week 4 7-8-1

And that makes NFL Betting Favorites 25-36-3 ATS (a rotten .409 winning rate) so far in the ‘22 campaign.

On Thursday Night, it’s …

INDIANAPOLIS (1-2-1) at DENVER (2-2) – 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime

Lots of injuries to sort through here including Broncos’ QB Russell Wilson (throwing shoulder) and so make sure to give us a game-day call at 702-420-5074. The Colts – like this Denver squad – have been major underachievers so far while averaging just over 16 ppg.

Spread Stuff – The Broncos have failed to cover three of their first four games in this Wilson / HC Nathaniel Hackett Era and note Denver’s an ugly 6-12 ATS since early last season.

Catch all the NFL Week 5 Sides & Totals Winners plus cash in big-time with our College Football and Major-League Baseball action when you check with us game days at our exclusive telephone # of 702-420-5074 or else you can go right here at our web site at VegasSportsMaster.pro … do yourself a big favor and pile up the profits!

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL REPORT

We know the deal … everyone’s back in school these days and that means it’s our first official “Q&A” session. Enjoy!

Q: Who are the only teams still undefeated against the spread while heading into this week’s / weekend’s action?

A: Dig this, there are five major-college teams that are perfect vig-wise and here they are:

ARKANSAS STATE – Hats off to the under-the-radar Red Wolves who’ve covered their first five games in a row out of the starting blocks. Back-to-back-to-back road covers last month at Ohio State, Memphis and Old Dominion was pretty spiffy stuff and this Saturday A-State a double-digit (+ 10.5) dog against red-hot James Madison.

JAMES MADISON – Speak of the devil, the JMU Dukes have barged into Year One of FBS play with a 4-and-oh spread start and, remember, the feature “W” here was the 32-28 triumph at 6-point fav Appalachian State a couple of weeks back.

KANSAS – Three cheers for Rock / Chalk / Jayhawk as they’ve been the best feel-good story of this ‘22 season. Note that Kansas – 5-0 ATS while heading into Saturday’s Big 12 showdown against full TD road favorite TCU (see below) – enjoyed some good fortune with all those missed FG tries by Iowa State last weekend but otherwise KU’s scored 56, 55, 48 and 35 points in its other contests. Is second-year boss Lance Leipold already a lock for National Coach of the Year?

SOUTHERN MISS – Holy Brett Favre, the Golden Eagles are 4-0 vig-wise this year with nifty dog covers against Liberty, Miami and Tulane. P.S., in case you hadn’t noticed Southern Miss (now + 6.5) took some “early money” for this weekend’s game at Troy.

TCU – If Kansas is the biggest “feel-good” story this year in major-college football, then TCU’s not too far behind. True, the Horned Frogs have speed comin’ out their ears and first-year head coach Sonny Dykes has been one of the country’s best for years. Hey, last year TCU registered an ungodly 2-9 spread mark … ugh!

Q: How has the powerful foursome of Alabama / Ohio State / Georgia / Clemson fared thus far against the almighty pointspread?

A: The four teams that began the year as the numbers 1-thru-4 — and still hold down four of the top five spots in the current Associated Press Top 25 poll along with Michigan – are a combined 10-9-1 against the odds (that’s a .526 winning rate) and likely not as good as one might have imagined. Consider that this quartet’s just 6-6 odds-wise in their home games … and both ‘Bama and Georgia are heavy-duty home favorites this October weekend.

Here’s the “big four” breakdown:

Alabama is 4-1 ATS

Ohio State is 2-2-1 ATS

Georgia is 2-3 ATS

Clemson is 2-3 ATS

Finally …

Q: What “name teams” have been pointspread busts so far?

A: Here’s the rundown:

Auburn’s failed to cover four of its first five games (and no wonder second-year boss Bryan Harsin seemingly already has one foot out the door!).

Houston is just 1-4 vig-wise and the Cougars – coming off last Friday’s 27-24 OT loss at home against Tulane – already has played in three different overtime games.

Stanford’s still not “cashed” a game this year as the Cardinal – coming off last weekend’s 45-27 loss at 17.5-point fav Oregon – is now 0-and-4 against the prices and actually has failed to cover 11 in a row dating back to 2021. Egads!

Last but not least, Virginia is a woeful 1-4 ATS so far with the lone cover a come-from-way-behind deal at Syracuse (lost 22-20 as 9.5-point dogs). The Wahoos have scored 3, 16, 20 and 17 points following that season-opening so-what non-cover win versus Richmond.

Don’t forget …

Call our exclusive phone # 702-420-5074 for all the Football / Baseball Winners or else get ‘em right here at VegasSportsMaster.pro 

DEAN OF LAS VEGAS HANDICAPPERS ON BIG PLAY TEAR!

*4-0 Last Two Weekends

Sun. 10/2 (100 Unit NFL Lock Of Week) Raiders (-2.5) over Broncos – 32-23 W

Sat. 10-1 (100 Unit CFB Lock of Week) UTEP (-3) over Charlotte – 41-35 W

Sun. 9/25 (100 Unit NFL Lock of Week) Falcons (+1) over Seahawks – 27-23 W

*All 50-100 & 200 Unit Personal Best Bets 16-7 This Season.

*All Personal Best Bets 71.5% Last 10 Years! 

KELSO STURGEON

PERSONAL BEST BET SELECTIONS 

The Strongest Plays On The Board
Top Play(s) Saturday – Top Play(s) Sunday – Weekdays When Rated
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Joe Mac’s Preview/Review Sports Newsletter, Friday, Sept 30

THE NFL WEEK 4 REPORT —

WILL THE DOGS CONTINUE

TO RULE THE ROOST? …

PLUS, QUICKIE PREVIEWS

OF THE JAGS-EAGLES, CHIEFS-BUCS …

COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S

WHAT-TO-WATCH WEEKEND ACTION

Hey, wanna crunch some numbers?

The National Football League – believe it or not – is close to the proverbial quarter-pole as their 32 member teams will have played almost 25 percent of their here-and-now schedule following this weekend’s action.

What else is hard to believe is that NFL Betting Favorites generally have been getting clobbered the first three-plus weeks into play, save for last night’s 27-15 win / cover by 4-point fav Cincinnati over Miami:

The week-to-week results for this season looks like this:

WEEK # FAVS VS SPREAD

Week 1 8-8-0

Week 2 5-10-1

Week 3 5-10-1

Week 4 1-0-0

Add ‘em up and NFL Betting Favorites thus far in 2022 are a rotten 19-28-2 ATS (against the spread) – the $64,000 question is do things begin to “even out” a little bit here in Week 4?

Hmmm. We can tell you that the best NFL Betting Favs so far include Baltimore, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay – all of whom sport identical 2-and-1 spread marks as chalk sides – but did you know that Arizona, Atlanta, Dallas (really!), Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, the New York Jets and Pittsburgh (really, again!) all have yet to be installed as a Betting Favorite so far.

On this NFL Week 4 card there are four teams currently in the Road Betting Favorite role – that’s Buffalo at Baltimore, the Los Angeles Chargers at Houston, Cleveland at Atlanta and Kansas City at Tampa Bay plus Minnesota’s a FG favorite right now in the neutral site game in London against the N’Orleans Saints.

Folks, catch all the NFL Week 4 Sides / Totals Winners plus cash in big-time in College Football and Major-League Baseball too when you check with us at our exclusive telephone # of 702-420-5074 or else you can go right here at our web site at VegasSportsMaster.pro … pile up the profits!

Here’s a sampling on what’s on tap for NFL Week 4 this Sunday, Oct. 2nd:

MINNESOTA (2-1) vs. NEW ORLEANS (1-2) – 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network

Back woes sidelined Saints’ QB Jameis Winston from practicing this past Wednesday / Thursday and it’s looking more likely that red-headed veteran Andy Dalton will get the call to start.

Spread Stuff – The Vikings have failed to cover 13 of their last 20 games when in the favorite’s role.

JACKSONVILLE (2-1) at PHILADELPHIA (3-0) – 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Great storyline here as former Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson takes his J’ville Jaguars into “The Linc” but does the ole coach have the answers to slow Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts (916 yards passing / 167 yards rushing and he’s accounted for 7 TDs)?

Spread Stuff – Philadelphia is just 12-18-4 versus the vig at home since winning that Super Bowl in the 2017 season.

NEW ENGLAND (1-2) at GREEN BAY (2-1) – 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Good luck trying to get any info from Patriots’ boss-man Bill Belichick regarding the health-and-well-being of QB1 Mac Jones (see serious ankle injury suffered in last week’s 37-26 home loss versus Baltimore). Belichick was what you’d call “tight-lipped” this week and gotta believe that means veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer gets a twirl here. P.S., the Packers are allowing just 15 ppg so far.

Spread Stuff – Green Bay is a solid 22-13 ATS versus non-divisional foes dating back to early in the 2019 season.

On Sunday Nite, it’s …

KANSAS CITY (2-1) at TAMPA BAY (2-1) – 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

At last check this game’s gonna be played in Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium and we need not remind Chiefs’ fans what happened the last time their team played see (it was a Super Bowl mess two years ago). Best thing about this clash for the host Bucs is WR Mike Evans (one-game suspension) is back and that’s welcome news for an otherwise punch-less TB attack.

Spread Stuff – In case you were wondering, Tampa Bay’s 24-18 spreadwise in the Tom Brady Era that started in 2020.

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S WATCH LIST

Let’s dial it up with Pointspread Talk regarding the five TV games this Saturday featuring ranked team-versus-ranked team – it’s our what-to-watch action:

#7 KENTUCKY (4-0) vs #14 OLE MISS (4-0) – 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Ole Miss Rebs are full TD betting favorites here even though Kentucky’s higher ranked and the ‘Cats are 11-4-1 ATS since the start of last year.

#2 ALABAMA (4-0) at #20 ARKANSAS (3-1) – 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Roll Tide, indeed! Note that ‘Bama is a solid 34-22-1 ATS the past four-plus seasons (that’s a healthy .607 winning rate) while the Hogs sport a nifty 10-4 spread log as dogs under third-year boss Sam Pittman. Note Crimson Tide opened at – 14.5 and it’s climbed to – 17.5.

#9 OKLAHOMA STATE (3-0) at #16 BAYLOR (3-1) – 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox

Remember last season these clubs clashed twice – Okie State won / covered the 3.5-point home price in 24-14 triumph but Baylor got sweet revenge in the Big 12 Championship Game with the thrilling 21-16 upset as TD dogs. One thing you should know here is Baylor’s 16-9-1 ATS overall under third-year coach Dave Aranda. Note the Bears were -1 to start the week and now are laying a deuce.

#22 WAKE FOREST (3-1) at #23 FLORIDA STATE (4-0) – 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

We’re going on record to state that WF boss Dave Clawson blew the twin-OT game against Clemson last week by getting way too conservative – hey, QB Sam Hartman had thrown six TDs and so why not let it rip? Wake’s covered five of its last six showdowns against FSU.

#10 N.C. STATE (4-0) at #5 CLEMSON (4-0) – 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Under-the-lights special in Death Valley where Clemson – perhaps a tad overrated and over-ranked – must turn up the pass rush heat here ‘cause this secondary is junky. State’s Devin Leary is one of the country’s best-kept secrets (see 0 TDs / 2 INTs in first four games of ‘22).

Call our exclusive phone # 702-420-5074 for all the Football / Baseball Winners or get ‘em right here at VegasSportsMaster.pro

“The Bettor Line” Newsletter by Kelso Sturgeon, Thursday, September 29

THE BETTOR LINE

Weekly Newsletter From Professional Handicapper

KELSO STURGEON

Contact me at Vegassportsmasters.pro or call or text me at 1-702-420-5074 or 1-646-526-2559. ALL MAJOR CREDIT CARDS ACCEPTED

Volume One, Edition Seven

September 29, 2022

Both 100-Unit Football Game Of Week Plays Won

Last Weekend…UCLA 43-17 Over Colorado…

Falcons 27-23 Over Seahawks…Two More This Weekend

Winning In The Football World Involves Many

Elements And The Bounce-Back Factor Will

Be Factor In Five College Games

Is There Trouble In Paradise?…Is Tom Brady As Bad

As he Looks?…Are Dolphins, Eagles As Good As They Look?

We Will Find Out This Week

Still Winning Big In Baseball…Playoffs Begin Oct. 7

Under New Format…$9 Per Day

6-2 Last Eight Bets

By Kelso Sturgeon

Successful Handicapper For Last 40-Plus Years

I am pleased to report I won both of my 100-unit football bets last weekend, getting the cash in the colleges Saturday with Game of the Week winner UCLA (-21.5) which crushed winless Colorado, 43-17. and Sunday in the NFL with Game of the Week victor Atlanta (+1), 27-23, at Seattle. It was the Falcons first win of the season. I also released two big NCAA upsets as Kansa State (+13.5) overpowered #6 Oklahoma, 41-34, with a dominating Big 12 performance in Norman and got the cover with Wake Forest (+8) that got the cover in a 51-45 two overtime home loss to 5th-ranked Clemson in an Atlantic Coast Conference contest.

As one who works overtime to win—and hates losing—I intend to come out firing the big guns again this weekend, with successful 100-unit bets for my Personal Best Football Club highrollers on Saturday and Sunday. Saturday’s three Best Bets wagers will be highlighted by LSU (3-1) at Auburn (3-1) while on Sunday the night game that finds Kansas City (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1), both coming into the contest in bounce-back form off narrow losses, tops Sunday’s NFL BBC 3-0 day.

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…SATURDAY & SINDAY ONLY $35 EACH
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Monday night’s game—the Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at the San Francisco 49ers (1-2) will be a 50-unit highroller wager.  AND PART OF THE PERSONAL BEST BET MEMBERSHIP! 

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YOU CAN PURCHASE MY 100 UNIT PLAYS EACH DAY
…SATURDAY & SINDAY ONLY $35 EACH
OR BEST OF ALL…GET ONE MONTH OF 50, 100 & 200 UNIT PLAYS
AS PART OF THE PERSONAL BEST BET SERVICE…$195.00  

From my handicapping point of view, I have concluded the transfer portal in college football has changed the game enough that I have altered my handicapping methodology to accommodate the pluses and minuses of the situation. While the things I have found shall remain with just me, I do believe they will raise win percentages 6-7 points.

Trouble in Paradise

Mind Games That Impact How Teams Perform

  1. Please do not be offended be what I am about to say about Buccaneers QB Tom Brady. I am a big fan of the GOAT by the truth is the truth. Brady is a shell of himself at 45 and will not be taking Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl this year. In last week’s 14-12 home loss to Buffalo, he could not hit important passes when the game was on the line and at times appeared lost. Chalk it all up to age and his marital problems and accept the fact it won’t be getting any better. The Bucs are -1 home favorites over Kansas City Sunday night.
  2. Disagreements between head coaches, offensive coordinators and quarterbacks is not unusual but it was a bit disturbing when Kansas City signal caller Patrick Mahomes had a heated sideline argument with offensive boss Eric Bieniemy. It was quite out of character for the QB and it is of note head coach Andy Reid had to separate them. Everyone said it was nothing, but I don’t believe that.
  3. Trouble is brewing in Las Vegas after the Raiders fell to 0-3 in their 24-22 loss at the Tennessee Titans. Players are already questioning whether new coach Josh McDaniels knows what he is doing. It’s a mystery how McDaniels ever got the job. Including getting fired as head coach at Denver, his record is 1-10. Veteran players say the three losses came because the team was not ready to play.
  4. In the colleges, the chaos continues at Georgia Tech (1-3) with the firing of head coach Geoff Collins and athletic director Todd Stansbury. He was 10-28 in 3 ½ years and 7-19 in ACC games. He joins Scott Frost who was hired in week two at Nebraska and Herm Edwards who was dismissed at Arizona State at the end of week three.
  5. At Boise State, until recently the unchallenged king of Mountain West football, senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier said he was disgusted with what’s going on in Boise, with Meantime, former Broncos coach the team after a 2-2 start and is entering the transfer portal to leave and join a winner. Meantime, in another Broncos-related matter, former head coach Bryan Harsin, had better lead his Auburn Tigers (3-1) to a win over LSU (3-1) Saturday , or start packing. After LSU, The Tigers play at #1 Georgia, are at 14th Ole Miss and home to #20 Arkansas. He could conceivably be an unthinkable 2-6 at that point. Not acceptable in Opelika and the faithful don’t care how much money it would take to get rid of him.

Bettors Are Beside Themselves When Stunning NFL AND PART OF THE PERSONAL BEST BET MEMBERSHIP! 

College Upsets Occur…A Look At The Bounce Factor In Handicapping

The college football world was stood on its head when in week two of this season, three Sun Belt teams, all big underdogs, knocked off three of the big boys, with Marshall winning at Notre Dame, 26-21, Appalachian State knocking off Texas A&M, 17-14, in College Station and with Georgia Southern shocking the Nebraska Cornhuskers, 45-42. Shocking? Yes.

But it continued last week as Southern Illinois, a Division II team from the Missouri Valley Conference, beat the Big Ten’s Northwestern, 31-24, in Evanston, and Middle Tennessee buried nationally ranked Miami, 45-31, in Miami.

With their victories, all the aforementioned teams entered the handicapping factor known as the “bounce”. The bounce factor simply stats a team that pulled off a major upset one weekend will bounce downward in its next game and a team that lost while playing far below its performance profile will bounce upward and win.

That is not quite as simple as it sounds, because no single handicapping factor stands alone. It is also of major importance the quality of its opponent in its next game. Marshall returned home and lost its next game to Bowling Green, 34-31, in overtime. Georgia Southern crushed Morgan State, one of the weakest Division II teams, 59-7, in its next start, while Appalachian State beat Troy, 32-28, on a Hail Mary pass, with no time left on the clock.

As noted, while the bounce factor is weighted heavily in the handicapping process, there are no guarantees because, as noted, no single factor stands alone.

The first test of this factor arrives Friday night as Middle Tennessee hosts UTSA as a 6.5-point underdog. Saturday is even more interesting as Navy, a 16.5-point underdog, won at East Carolina, 23-20, for its first victory of the season and is a 16-point underdog at Air Force. What does one do with the Big 12 battle in the Manhattan of the Plains as #25 Kansas State, which won at Oklahoma last week, meets Texas Tech which beat Texas, 37-34 in overtime?

In the NFL, where the factor is equally as strong, one must ask if Buffalo can bounce back after losing last week at Miami, 21-19? The Bills are 4-point favorites at Baltimore. What about the Kansas City at Tampa Bay contest where both teams are coming off losses? KC is the 1-point choice in a game that most likely will be moved to the Minnesota Vikings stadium in Minneapolis because of the impact in Florida of Hurricane Ian.

Always incorporate the bounce factor into handicapping but also remain aware it can be influenced by many other factors.

All games and special programs available each day at Vegassportsmasters.pro or call or text me at 1-702-420-5074 or 1-646-526-2559 as are all the details about my special football packages.

VSM’s Joe Mac’s Review/Preview Sports Newsletter, Tuesday, Sept 27

THE NFL WEEK 3 WRAP-UP —

HERE’S THE UP-TO-THE-MINUTE

POINTSPREAD SKINNY ON

LAST YEAR’S PLAYOFF SQUADS

(AND IT AIN’T GOOD!) …

PLUS, GOING ‘ROUND THE

COLLEGE FOOTBALL LANDSCAPE

WITH LOTS OF NEWS & NOTES

Okay, so we hate to clobber y’all right over the head as we begin this Tuesday morning column, but ….

If you happen to have been wagering on ALL of last year’s National Football League playoff teams – we don’t need to list ‘em here, you know who they were! — then you realize that in this here-and-now 2022 campaign these clubs are a combined up-to-the-second 17-23-2 ATS (against the spread) for a weak .425 winning percentage and – yes – that’s following the Dallas Cowboys’ 23-16 win over the one-point favorite New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Consider that the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Las Vegas Raiders, the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, the New England Patriots, the San Francisco 49ers and the Tennessee Titans – all playoff teams last season — account for a horrid 5-15-1 pointspread mark through the season’s first three weeks of play this year.

The above-mentioned Cowboys (2-1) have now won / covered both of their games started by backup QB Cooper Rush (21-of-31 passing for 215 yards and one TD with zero turnovers) and

no doubt the most impressive part of Dallas’ game last night was that fierce pass rush that sacked NYG’s Daniel Jones seven times and nary a one by all-everything Micah Parsons.

In short, let’s not have everyone hand over the NFC East crown to the 3-and-oh Philadelphia Eagles just yet, okay?

P.S., the first Eagles v Cowboys game this year will be October 17th at Philly. Can’t wait!

Folks, catch all the NFL Week 4 Sides / Totals Winners beginning with Thursday’s big game between the unbeaten Miami Dolphins at the Cincinnati Bengals (see quickie preview below) plus cash in big-time in College Football and Major-League Baseball too when you check with us at our exclusive telephone # of 702-420-5074 or else you can go right here at our web site at VegasSportsMaster.pro … pile up the profits as we head to the sports-world month of October!

On Thursday Nite, it’s …

MIAMI (3-0) at CINCINNATI (1-2) – 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime

The $64,000 question is did Dolphins’ lefty QB Tua Tagovailoa suffer a concussion – or not – in last Sunday’s wild 21-19 upset win against Buffalo. You might have noticed the early-week line move from Bengals minus 2 points to minus 3.5. Hmmm.

Spread Stuff – Miami has darted out of the ‘22 starting gate with back-to-back-to-back pointspread wins against New England, Baltimore and Buffalo but did you know the Dolphins enter this tilt at 13-6-2 ATS as underdog sides since the start of the 2020 campaign?

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL NOTEBOOK

Lots to get to with the college kids so let’s not waste a millisecond:

As long as we’re staying with a negative pointspread theme, take note of the following:

** The Auburn Tigers are 0-and-5 spreadwise while heading into Saturday’s SEC home game against LSU. C’mon, no way did you think War Eagle would be a 9-point home pup here (it opened at LSU minus 6 points), right? No wonder folks are calling for head coach Bryan Harsin’s head despite the 3-1 SU (straightup) start. Please, no more Urban Meyer rumors!

** The Boston College Eagles have not gone to bowl games the past two years but only because the pandemic kayoed both 2020 and ‘21 bowl tilts. Gotta feeling BC won’t even be invited to the bowl party this year as Jeff Hafley’s club is 1-3 SU / 0-4 ATS following last weekend’s 30-point loss at Florida State.

** Let’s lump in both Colorado and Colorado State into this messy mix: The Buffaloes and Rams are – get this – a combined 0-and-8 SU and 0-8 ATS and they’ve been outscored by a whopping 247 points so far (that’s losing games by an average of nearly 31 ppg. Geez. Anyone that wagers such much as a can of soda pop on either of these clubs is wacko!

** Once upon a time under 12th-year head coach David Shaw, the Stanford Cardinal was a major force in college football … but no more. The Palo Alto bunch has been beaten by 13 and 18 points in Pac-12 tilts against USC and then at Washington and all told Stanford’s 0-3 vig-wise when you consider that season-opening 41-10 non-cover win against 40-point dog Colgate. If taking more than two TDs at Oregon floats your boat this weekend – the Ducks right now are favored by a whopping 16.5 points – then maybe you should be notified at Stanford’s now lost its last 10 consecutive pointspread decisions dating back to last year. Ugh!

On our teams-to-watch radar this weekend are – among others — #7 Kentucky and #9 Oklahoma State (3-0).

The UK Wildcats (4-0) are 6.5-point underdogs at Ole Miss this Saturday and Mark Stoops’ crew owns a nationally-ranked defense (17th in the country) and has QB Will Levis (10 TDs, 4 INTs) on their side. Would you like to know also that Kentucky’s 13-5-1 spreadwise overall since late 2020?

Meanwhile, if Okie State – currently a 2.5-point pup at #16 Baylor — can get a little revenge for last year’s Big 12 Championship Game loss to the Bears then Mike Gundy’s club could climb into the top five real soon and be a real threat to make the playoffs. Our spread stat on Oklahoma State … the Cowboys are a delicous 14-3-1 ATS in all games since very late in the ‘20 campaign.

Lots more college game goodies later this week right here!

*************

Call our exclusive phone # 702-420-5074 for all the Football / Baseball Winners or get ‘em right here at VegasSportsMaster.pro