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Jim Sez: Jim Hurley’s Weekend Preview – May 26, 2022  

   

Celtics/Heat Game 6, AL East Notes, Lousy $$$ Investments

  Who needs Kevin Durant? Durant helped Golden State win back-to-back NBA titles in his first two years with the organization, including scoring 39 points in Game 5 of the 2017 Finals. That was a series-clinching 129-120 win over Cleveland that also cemented Durant’s Finals MVP. But let’s not forget the Warriors won the 2015 title without Durant. They have a chance to be in the Finals for the sixth time in eight years winning three championships. The constant Big 3 has been Stephon Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, who have a shot at grabbing a fourth ring.

  Golden State came into the playoffs as the No. 3 seed in the West taking a while to get healthy. Curry played in 64 games, Green 46, and Thompson just 32. It’s a difficult task to try and get star players healthy during the regular season while still winning enough games to qualify for the postseason (just ask the Lakers). After all, during the 2019–20 season, Thompson missed the whole year while Curry only played five games due to a hand injury. The Warriors finished with the worst record (15-50) in the NBA.

  Accolades should also go to Coach Steve Kerr. Golden State went 51-31 in 2013-14 under Coach Mark Jackson as the No. 6 seed in the West. The perception was that the talented team underachieved and Kerr replaced Jackson. Kerr became the first coach to start his career with a 19-2 record as Golden State went on to a 67-15 campaign (39-2 at home) and the No. 1 seed. They soon won the title in six games over Cleveland. Kerr is outstanding at maximizing team defense, with this team third during the regular season in points given up, second in field goal defense, third in 3-point shooting allowed, Top 10 in turnovers forced. Golden State will begin the Finals on the road and is 30-21 UNDER the total against winning teams, 67-48 UNDER as a road dog.

  In the East, the Heat and Celtics continue to slog it out. Game 4 was over early as Boston jumped to a 29-11 first-quarter lead and rolled to a series-tying 102-82 rout. Bettors could see a defensive duel coming as the total moved down a bit from 208- to 207- and were correct. Both teams shot under 40%. Boston put on a near-clinic in Game 5, winning another defensive game, 93-80. I say “near-clinic” as Miami had 19 offensive rebounds and somehow lost at home by double-digits. Missing 38 3-pointers was a big factor along with shooting 33% and 32% from the field in the last two games. How good is Boston’s defense? Miami’s lowest-scoring games this season have been 78, 79, and 80 points – and two were against the Green. Those Celtics are 22-9 ATS after scoring 105 points or fewer and if there’s a Game 7 they’re 5-0 SU/ATS this postseason following a loss. Miami is 19-9 ATS as an underdog, including 15-6 ATS as a road dog.

I continue to COUNT CA$H and what a great time to join with the NBA playoffs and baseball rolling. Get on board Jim Hurley’s Network NOW by calling 1-800-323-4453 or direct 1-516-669-7819, or online at VegasSportsMaster.pro.

Lousy $$$ Investments: It may surprise you that the White Sox and Phillies are ranked No. 5 and No. 6 in payroll. Neither are getting their money’s worth in the win column. Chicago was No. 15 in payroll in 2021 but won 93 games and a division title. They’ve been playing .500 baseball in 2022 despite some very good stats, Top 10 in the league in pitching ERA and runs scored, so they probably will start turning things around. Chicago is 41-15 at home against a starting pitcher with very good control, one walking fewer than 1.75 walks per start, plus 25-11 at home as chalk of -110  to -150. Philadelphia was fourth in payroll last year when they went 82-80 and look just as mediocre. The Phillies are on a 55-76 run away from home after an 8-4 loss at Atlanta, as well as 20-7 UNDER the total against an NL starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.050 or better.

Armed Marlins: The Miami Marlins lost 95 games last year but have been improved thanks to a pitching staff that is fourth in the majors in ERA. It’s a bit misleading as there are no pitchers on the roster with ERAs between 3.00-3.99 – it’s been feast or famine. But at the top of the rotation are two terrific 26-year-old starters in Sandy Alcantara (2.11 ERA) and Pablo Lopez (2.04 ERA). The offense, however, is one of the worst in the league, #29 in runs scored and on-base percentage, so they should shoot for a .500 season at best. But for bettors, keep in mind the Marlins are 72-55 UNDER the total as an underdog, 33-16 UNDER after four or more straight home contests.

Seattle Slew: The money moved against the Mariners Monday, from a -170 home favorite to -160 versus Oakland. That’s because they had lost seven of nine games and Seattle was a bit valued. But the Mariners had just returned from a 10-game road trek and have been a different team home and away. Seattle is a terrible road team (8-18) but has a winning home record, jumping to a 7-3 lead before holding on in a 7-6 win over Oakland. The money moved on them the next night, from -140 to -160…and they let a 5-4 lead slip away in a 7-5 defeat. Some good news is that Seattle outfielder Kyle Lewis, the 2020 American League Rookie of the Year, is back after missing the last 11 months. Seattle is on a 56-44 run at home, 39-23 at home after two or more straight road games. But beware of their road trips: The Mariners are 5-17 after two or more consecutive road contests, 4-15 after three or more road games.

AL East Betting Notes: The AL East is a logjam of talented teams. In April, Boston’s pitching was very good while the offense was struggling badly. They’ve now flip-flopped which is a more accurate reflection of the talent. The Red Sox offense has finally caught fire moving up to fifth in runs and second in slugging after a 16-3 blowout at Chicago as a dog, part of a 9-4 run. Boston plays a string of struggling teams (White Sox, Orioles, Reds) so they may stay hot. The Red Sox are 34-19 OVER the total after a win by 4 runs or more, 73-46 OVER after scoring 8+ runs…The Yankees and Rays have been hot all season but you have to throw the Blue Jays in the mix now. Toronto won six of 11 after an 8-1 win at St. Louis. The Blue Jays are Top 10 in the majors in both runs scored and pitching ERA with a staff that allows the fewest walks in the AL. Toronto is on a 26-16 run UNDER the total, as well as 58-42 UNDER on the road game…The Yankees and Rays have a four-game showdown this weekend. Tampa Bay is 89-52 after a game where the bullpen blew a save. The Yankees are just 57-41 versus losing teams after dropping two to Baltimore, plus 53-49 against the AL East. They’re also 26-31 off a loss to an AL East rival as chalk.  

The basketball and baseball seasons continue to cash BIG with totals, parlays, and sides. Jump on board Jim Hurley’s Winning Network by calling 1-800-323-4453 or direct 1-516-669-7819, or online at VegasSportsMaster.pro.

Joe Mac’s Sports Newsletter, Tuesday, May 24

IT’S A SPORTS BETTING BONANZA —

THERE’S NBA PLAYOFF UPDATES,

BASEBALL GOODIES AND EVEN

SOME COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHATTER

The brooms are out tonight:

The Golden State Warriors – three-time NBA champions in the 2010’s and out of the playoffs entirely the past two years – have a shot at the playoff sweep on this Tuesday night in Dallas and we’re quite sure you’ve seen the numbers … NBA playoff teams are 176-0 all-time when holding a three-games-to-love series lead.

But you want other numbers?

Just consider that the Dallas Mavericks were – once upon a time – up 53-34 with seven-plus minutes remaining in the second quarter of Game 2 in this best-of-seven set and we’re sure nobody was thinking about a series sweep then but instead G-State rallied to a 126-117 win /cover as 6.5-point betting favorites and then absolutely sucked the life from the Mavs in Sunday’s Game 3 tilt with that overpowering 109-100 triumph as 3.5-point underdogs (and please don’t ask why the Warriors were taking points!).

So, while Mavs’ megastar Luka Doncic cranked out 42- and 40-point nights the past two games, it all went for naught. The Warriors have won and covered all three games in this series and they go for the sweep in style … or hadn’t you noticed that in that latest GSW win the Dubs crushed the Mavs on the boards 47-to-33 with a slew of offensive rebs while Hall-of-Famer-to-be Stephen Curry poured in 31 points and won all his prop plays with “over” points and “over” in assists and rebounds too at 11 and 5, respectively.

Just to put an exclamation point on things, the Warriors have covered their last four in a row after that 134-95 beat-down loss in Game 5 against Memphis in the Western Conference Semifinal Round (a so-what game) and you’re hearing the word “peaking” when it comes to this Golden State gang.

So, why – as of this minute – are Steve Kerr’s club an underdog here in Game 4? Hmmm.

DATE WINNER SPREAD LOSER SCORE

5-18 GOLDEN ST – 5.5 Dallas 112-87

5-20 GOLDEN ST – 6.5 Dallas 126-117

5-22 Golden St + 3.5 DALLAS 109-100

In the NBA Eastern Conference Finals …

The Boston Celtics knotted up their best-of-seven series against the Miami Heat with Monday night’s easy-as-pie 102-82 win as hefty 7-point betting favorites. From the what-else-is-news department there was another monstrous first quarter by the eventual winner – the Celts dashed out to a 26-4 lead and the Heat missed 15 of its first 16 FG tries in all – and now Miami’s keeping fingers crossed that star G Jimmy Butler (6 points and 1 assist in Game 4) can re-ignite the South Beach bunch in Wednesday’s Game 5 bash.

DATE WINNER SPREAD LOSER SCORE

5-17 MIAMI – 4.5 Boston 118-107

5-19 Boston + 1 MIAMI 127-102

5-21 Miami + 5.5 BOSTON 109-103

5-23 BOSTON – 7 Miami 102-82

… Go ahead and catch all the NBA Playoff Conference Finals, USFL and Major-League Baseball winners each and every day when you check with us at our exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-888-777-4155 or right here at our web site at VegasSportsMaster.pro … go ahead and get ‘em while they’re hot!

THE BASEBALL REPORT

Okay, so we’re closing in on Memorial Day Weekend in another few days and it’s time to take stock in who has been costing the general public the most moolah … here goes:

The Washington Nationals have been a true dumpster fire in 2022 – the Nats headed into Monday night’s home game against the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 748 bucks based on $100 per play wagers as the D.C. crew is an ugly 5-15 at home. Right now the Nats rank 28th (out of 30 MLB teams) in both home runs hit (27) and team ERA (4.93).

However, there’s one other National League team that’s cost their backers more loot than that … the Cincinnati Reds (of course) entered Monday’s home game against the Chicago Cubs at – 1170 bucks with that shabby 12-28 record (and remember the Reds actually have won nine of their last 15 games overall). More bad numbers: The Reds are 23rd in both runs scored and home runs and dead last in the bigs with a hideous 5.61 ERA.

The American League’s worst?

The Kansas City Royals – who blew a 5-0 lead on Sunday en route to a 7-6 home loss versus Minnesota – entered this new week at – $ 1072 while ranking 27th in runs scored with 145 (or 3.62 runs per game), 27th in home runs with just 28 and 26th in team ERA at 4.70.

Safe to say you might want to steer clear of these teams till further notice!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NOTES

Did you enjoy that nasty back-and-forth between Alabama head coach Nick Saban and Texas A&M boss man Jimbo Fisher last week (not to mention Saban’s verbal battle with Jackson State head coach Deion Sanders)?

Well, it got us to thinking about this year’s matchup between the Crimson Tide and Aggies – it’s slated for Oct. 8th in Tuscaloosa and the early-bird price tag has ‘Bama favored by a whopping 16 points.

Note that Saban’s been the boss in Alabama for the past 14 years while Fisher’s been at Texas A&M since 2018 … and here’s how their head-to-head matchups have gone the past four seasons in SEC-land:

YEAR WINNER SPREAD LOSER SCORE

2018 ALABAMA – 24.5 Texas A&M 45-23

2019 Alabama – 17 TEXAS A&M 47-28

2020 ALABAMA – 18 Texas A&M 52-24

2021 TEXAS A&M + 18 Alabama 41-38

Ahh, so perhaps Saban’s really more miffed about the fact his club lost its only regular-season game to the Aggies last year and maybe all this recruiting jive is just a “front” … but, in any event, you see the Saban vs. Fisher matchup has produced a 2-2 ATS (against the spread) draw the past four years when these one-time coaching buddies – Fisher worked under Saban at LSU years ago – have gone head to head.

Fun stuff as we’re now less than 100 days away from the start of the 2022 NCAA Football Season.

Remember to call our toll-free # of 1-888-777-4155 for all the b-ball, football and baseball winners!

Jim Sez: Jim Hurley’s Weekend Wrap Up – May 23, 2022  

     


NL West Road Warriors, Warriors/Mavericks Game 4,
Punchless Pirates

  Basketball is a game of ebb and flow. Players and teams get a hot shooting hand, then they can go cold, sometimes for long stretches. Teams can be out of synch defensively, then suddenly start forcing turnovers while shutting down an opponent. The Celtics/Heat series has been loaded with it. In Game 2, Miami jumped out to an 18-8 lead at home, only to watch Boston completely shift gears on the way to a 70-45 halftime lead. The last time the Celtics led by 27 at the half of a playoff game was in 2020 against Toronto. There was no letdown, although the next game was much closer, a 102-99 Boston win in a series they would go on to win in 7 games.

  In Game 3, Miami led 39-18 in the first quarter only to watch Boston cut it to one point in the final minutes. Miami held on to win, 109-103, with the underdog winning two of the first three straight up. The Celtics have been an incredibly resilient team, losing four postseason games only to win the following games by 23, 8, 13, and 25 points. It’s shaping up as a series featuring Miami’s team defense (24 turnovers forced in Game 3) and Boston’s ability to bounce back. Miami is 19-6 ATS as an underdog, including 15-5 ATS as a road dog. Against top teams that outscore their opponents by 3+ points per contest, Miami is 16-6 ATS while the Celtics are 20-10 ATS.

  The Mavericks/Warriors series has been about defense and the 3-pointer…and it hasn’t gone well for Dallas. Both teams were Top 10 during the regular season in 3-pointers attempted, Top 3 in points allowed. The Mavericks were 10th during the regular season in 3-pointers made but that magic hasn’t been enough in the Western Conference Finals. They were 11-of-48 from long range in Game 1, a 112-87 loss. They were better in Game 2 (21-of-45) but still lost, 126-117. That’s because Golden State shot 56% from the field and 50% (14-of-28) from beyond the arc. Game 3 was more of the same with Golden State allowing 40% shooting and Dallas just 13-of-45 from long range (28.9%). No NBA team has rallied from 3-0 down to win a playoff series.

  If there’s any hope for Dallas it’s that they’re 25-12 ATS after a loss, 20-9 ATS revenging a defeat to the same opponent, and that the Warriors are 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS this postseason on the road. The Mavs are also 19-10 UNDER the total at home after a loss. The Warriors have been a dominant defense all year, third in points allowed and at defending beyond the arc, second in field goal shooting allowed during the regular season. Golden State is on a 94-73 run UNDER the total, while Dallas is 33-14 UNDER at home.

I continue to COUNT CA$H and what a great time to join with the NBA playoffs and baseball rolling. Get on board Jim Hurley’s Network NOW by calling 1-800-323-4453 or direct 1-516-669-7819, or online at VegasSportsMaster.pro.

NL West Road Warriors: The San Diego Padres have played far more road games than home ones after just completing a nine-game trek. The total on their game at Philadelphia went from 9 to 8 last week and San Diego won, as did totals bettors, in a 2-0 shutout behind Yu Darvish. The Padres have won six of seven road series this season while winning his last four starts. Darvish is also 33-15 UNDER the total on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. San Diego is Top 10 in pitching ERA, second in the majors defensively in fielding percentage, while the offense is #11 in runs scored. After starting 5-5, the Padres are clicking looking like a team built for the long haul after a 10-1 win at San Francisco Sunday as an underdog…The Arizona Diamondbacks may be battling the Rockies for last place in the division, but the team’s pitching is much-improved. They’ve been most impressive on the road, pulling back-to-back wins of 3-1 win, 10-6, and 7-6 at Wrigley Field as an underdog. Arizona is also 17-4 UNDER when the total is between 8.5 to 10…San Francisco has a winning record both home and away. The Giants just went 3-3 on a road trip, part of an 8-6 run overall. While the pitching was second in the majors a year ago, it’s only #20 this season. But there’s a very good sign that will improve: San Francisco’s pitching staff is in the Top 5 in fewest walks allowed. If they continue to be stingy allowing free passes you’ll likely see the ERA start moving up the stat sheet.  

Punchless Pirates: The Pittsburgh Pirates were really bad last year losing 101 games. Their minus-224 run differential was the second-worst in the league, topped (or bottomed out) only by the 110-loss Orioles. In 2022, the Pirates have been in the middle of the pack in the NL Central ahead of the struggling Cubs and Reds. However, there’s little to like. Pittsburgh is worst in the NL in runs scored, second-worst in the majors, while the pitching is #27 in team ERA allowing the third-most walks. Even the defense in the field is terrible with the second-worst fielding percentage. Jose Quintana is the only starter throwing well, which probably means he’ll be dealt in July for prospects. Sunday they might have hit rock bottom losing 18-4 to St. Louis allowing 20 hits…at home! They’re on a 7-4-1 run UNDER the total with that weak offense, plus 32-71 versus NL Central opponents and 7-33 against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or homers or less.

Baseball’s Home/Road Extreme Teams: The rebuilding Baltimore Orioles started with an 11-10 winning record at home but have been no-shows on the road starting 5-14. The same is true of Seattle, with a winning home mark but starting 8-17 away. The Mariners are on a six-game homestand this week and then embark on a nine-game road trek. The Dodgers are almost always favored. Pay attention as they’ve been great at home but closer to .500 away from Dodger Stadium losing 4-3 at Philly Sunday as a favorite. And the Rockies have a winning home record in Coors Field but started 5-10 on the road. That’s mainly because the pitching and defense are terrible and you need both to contend away from home. Colorado begins a seven-game road trip this week, though it’s at the Pirates and Nationals. Will they be in the rare role of road favorite?

Tread Carefully Around Chalk: You have to be careful betting too many favorites in baseball, including learning to say NO to BIG favorites. On Thursday’s short MLB card there were only two major money moves and both were folks making the big favorites even bigger. Red-hot Houston went from -185 to -205 and won easily, 5-1, at home over Texas. The Astros are 30-10 at home versus AL teams that allow 4.4 or fewer runs per contest. In addition, baseball home favorites with a moneyline between -175 to -250 that outscore opponents by more than a run per game are 49-5 after scoring one run or less. That same day, though, the Mets zoomed from -135 to -175…and trailed 6-5 in extra innings before a 2-run rally in the bottom of the 10th to win, 7-6. That’s winning a big favorite the hard (and very lucky) way. After all, earlier in the day the Yankees were bet up to -200 and lost at Baltimore, 9-6, on Anthony Santander’s three-run homer in the ninth. At the bottom of Friday’s card were three minus-160 home favorites in the Astros, Angels, and Blue Bays. Toronto squeezed out a 2-1 win, while the other two lost: Oakland upset the Angels, 4-2, while Texas shut out the Astros, 3-0. That’s why tossing big favorites into three-team parlays can blow up in your face as upsets and surprises happen every day during a 162-day campaign.

The basketball and baseball seasons continue to cash BIG with totals, parlays, and sides. Jump on board Jim Hurley’s Winning Network by calling 1-800-323-4453 or direct 1-516-669-7819, or online at VegasSportsMaster.pro.