THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL REPORT –
PLAYIN’ A LITTLE GAME OF “FACT” OR “FICTION” …
PLUS, OUR NFL NEWS & NOTES SEGMENT
FOCUSES ON DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVS
(ONE OF THE BETTER INVESTMENTS THIS SEASON!)
Have you checked out the NFL Week 8 menu?
Well, of course you have by now, but did you notice that at this minute the Buffalo Bills, the Los Angeles Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs are priced as double-digit betting favorites … and you might add the Cincinnati Bengals to that list too before long ‘cause Cincy is right now a 9.5-point fav at the hapless / hopeless New York Jets.
And what exactly are we getting at?
Listen up … so far NFL Double-Digit Betting Favorites are a slick (and very profitable) 8-3 ATS (against the spread) this 2021 season, good for a .727 winning rate.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers – your defending Super Bowl champions – really rule the roost as twin-figure favorites with a sparkling 3-0 ATS log in this category with wins / covers against 13-point pup Atlanta (Week 2), 11-point underdog Miami (Week 5) and 12-point dog Chicago (Week 7) and note Arizona, Buffalo, Denver, Green Bay and Indianapolis each own a single spread win / cover as double-digit favorites.
Once upon a time we were “taught” that NFL Double-Digit Betting Favorites was a bad investment.
From the looks of it thus far in ’21, that’s simply not the case.
Hey, don’t look now but there are actually 37 FBS teams that already have played eight (8) games this 2021 season … and don’t forget that sad-sack UConn has played nine games to date.
In other words, nearly 30 percent of the country’s major-college gridiron programs already have played a full two-thirds of their regular-season schedule – wow, did that go by quickly, eh? – and so we wanted to take a few minutes to examine some “Fact” or “Fiction” pointspread-related items with some of these squads:
NEBRASKA – Big Red’s just 3-5 SU (straight-up) on the year and most folks would call this a disaster season but we say nay, nay, nay.
Take a closer look and you’ll see that under-siege head coach Scott Frost – yes, he’s probably “dead man walking” these days – has guided the Cornhuskers to a better-than-you-thought 5-3 ATS mark that includes underdog covers at Oklahoma and at Michigan State.
The ‘Huskers were 22.5- and 3.5-point pups in those back-to-back September tilts and the FACT is Nebraska figures to be dangerous as dogs in year-ending games against Purdue, Ohio State, at Wisconsin and Iowa. Take note that Nebraska is a full TD betting fav this weekend at home against the Purdue Boilermakers and Frost’s guys have covered three-of-four games in Lincoln this year.
UTSA – Don’t be ashamed to admit that you didn’t know these Roadrunners enter their bye this weekend with a perfect 8-and-oh SU mark while banging out a spiffy 7-1 ATS log. Truth be told, UTSA sports a + 165-point differential (that’s 315-to-150) and Jeff Traylor’s gang has covered all four of its away games (at Illinois, Memphis, Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech).
The other FBS teams with a similar pointspread record are as follows:
Kentucky (6-1 ATS), Michigan (6-1), Pittsburgh (6-1), Bowling Green (6-2), New Mexico State (6-2) and Virginia (6-2) and – please note — Syracuse’s 7-and-1 spread log happens to be equal to UTSA as the best pointspread record in the land at this very moment.
The FACT is UTSA has covered 20 of its last 30 games overall and the R-Runners are winning games this year by an average of 20.5 points.
Tennessee’s “turned the corner” behind first-year head ball coach Josh Heupel, right?
Ladies and gents, that would be pure FICTION considering the Rocky Toppers – fresh off last weekend’s 52-24 loss at 25-point favorite Alabama – exited that SEC affair at just 3-5 against the odds this 2021 season and so that would make the Volunteers a composite 24-40 ATS since the start of the 2016 season. Yikes!
Sure, this year’s Vols have shown some life and some moxie – we recall the back-to-back high-scoring wins / covers against Mizzou and South Carolina that had us thinking the arrow was pointing up for Big Orange — but it’s hard to ignore the fact Tennessee ranks 119th nationally in overall defense and remains a betting dud.
We’ll keep this one short-and-sweet:
The consensus feeling prior to the start of this here-and-now season was that Georgia / Alabama / Ohio State /Oklahoma / Oregon was far-and-away better than anyone out there and this quintet would crush most of their opponents versus the vig.
Again, that’s turned out to be FICTION as the Dawgs / Tide / Buckeyes/ Sooners /Ducks enter this last weekend in October a combined 21-20-2 against the odds. Not great considering all the summertime hype, right?
Finally, note that there’s a true blockbuster game ahead this weekend – that’s unbeaten #6 Michigan at undefeated #8 Michigan State as these teams are a combined 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS – and a bevy of fun showdowns (see #1 Gorgia vs. three-loss and two-TD underdog Florida, #10 Ole Miss at #18 Auburn and #20 Penn State at #5 Ohio State) and we’ll have plenty to say about these showdowns later in the week.
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