Football Coaches, Chiefs/Titans, Totals and Run Defense

Football is arguably the most difficult sport to coach. There are so many players that have to be assessed, organized, taught, and motivated, in addition to weekly game planning. When the Arizona Cardinals hired Kliff Kingsbury, GM Steve Keim wanted to bring in experienced assistants as Kingsbury had never coached in the NFL. With Kingsbury out Sunday in a Covid protocol, assistant head coach Jeff Rodgers and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph split the head coaching chores, while assistant wide receivers coach Spencer Whipple called the plays. The Cardinals won at Cleveland, 37-14, as an underdog to move to 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS. The Baltimore Ravens have a terrific coach in John Harbaugh, who wins and covers in preseason and when the games count.

The Ravens are on a 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS run after shutting down the Chargers, 34-6.  In college, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has been in the news all week. He returned to Tennessee Saturday, a team he coached for one year before bolting, and came away with a 31-26 victory to vault to No. 12 in the polls. Kiffin deserves credit for recruiting a gem in QB Matt Corral (14 TDs, 1 INT). But don’t overlook Kiffin’s whole body of work, which has been filled with sloppy play and underachieving teams. Kiffin’s not the kind of coach I look at and think, “His game preparation and management is worth 2-3 points this week.”  After all, they’ve played two Top 20 teams and went 0-2 ATS, getting crushed by Alabama, 41-21, while squeaking by Arkansas, 52-51, as a 5-point favorite. Even with Corral last season, Ole Miss had a losing record in the regular season losing to Florida (51-35), ‘Bama (63-48). Arkansas (33-21), Auburn (35-28), and LSU (53-48). In the loss to a 5-5 LSU squad, Ole Miss turned it over 6 times and blew a 48-40 lead. In the loss to Arkansas, they coughed it up 7 times. In his lone NFL stint, Kiffin’s Oakland Raiders went 4-12 and his 2012 USC team was a preseason No. 1 but flopped at 7-6. It was the first time since 1963 that a preseason No. 1 finished unranked.  Ole Miss has a chance for a strong finish with all this offensive talent, but the schedule is challenging at Auburn, Texas A&M, and LSU. They even have 5-1 Liberty on the schedule, a team that upset Virginia Tech last year, 38-35. The biggest concern is injured QB Corral, who is questionable to play on Saturday. Maybe Kiffin is a better coach than in the past…or maybe another sloppy 6-turnover upset is on the horizon.

Miami Flounders: The rebuilding Houston Texans have the worst point differential in the NFL at minus-80, which was not unexpected. But who is second-worst? The Miami Dolphins (-78). Expectations were high after going 10-6 last year, but 2021 is shaping up as a train wreck. Miami is on a 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS run after losing in London, 23-20, to the Jaguars. To add salt to the wound, it was Jacksonville’s first win in 21 games. The Dolphins are last in the league in rushing with 71.5 yards per game, #27 in yards per rush (3.7), while the defense is second-worst on third down (52.44%), third-worst in total yards allowed, fourth-worst in passing yards surrendered. QB Tua Tagovailoa is back and there are plenty of easy games on the schedule, so they won’t end up, say, 2-14. Note that head coach Brian Flores has been a strong finisher, 18-8 ATS after the first month of the season.  

Speaking of string finishers…it does not get any better than the Titans’ goal line stand to upset the Bills on Monday night for ANOTHER JIM PRIME TIME WINNER. 

That outright Dog triumph moved Jim’s DOCUMNTED PRIME TIME RUN to an amazing 14-2 (remember, the clients who play these games are reading this) ATS Mark. And the next “W” is set for Thursday Night Football! 

Broncos @ Browns – 8:20 PM (FOX/NFLN)
*Each Team Has Shown Some Promise
*Each Team Coming Off A Loss
^Each Team In Need Of A Win – You’ll Know Which One Gets It! 

NFL Totals and Run ‘D’: If you can’t stop the run, opponents don’t need to pass. That’s one flaw with the Chargers, dead last in the NFL in run defense (surrendering 162.5 yards per game) and yards per carry (5.4). If opponents can run successfully that chews up yards and keeps the clock moving, the right mix for bettors who play UNDERs. The Chargers have high totals because of their offensive potential but are actually 5-1 UNDER. The Eagles (4-2 UNDER) are fifth-worst at stopping the run, while the Lions are seventh-worst and have gone 4 straight UNDER the total. Seattle is #23 in yards per carry allowed (4.4), #29 in run defense (140.8 yards per game allowed), 4-1-1 UNDER the total.

Broncos at Browns (Thursday): Two shell-shocked walking zombies, perfect with Halloween approaching. Based on preseason and offseason moves, neither expected to be 3-3 coming into this one. And one will have a losing record 3 hours later. Denver has lost 3 in a row despite being favored in all 6 games. QB Teddy Bridgewater (10 TDs, 4 INTs) has been very good but is battling a foot injury. The Broncos are 27-13-1 UNDER the total versus the AFC.   The Browns have even more injuries with RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt out while QB Baker Mayfield (6 TDs, 3 INTs) is dealing with shoulder problems. And then there’s the Cleveland defense that has been torched the last two games surrendering 47 and 37 points. NFL favorites like the Browns are 19-46 ATS after a game where they had a minus-3 turnover margin or worse.  

Wisconsin at #25 Purdue (Saturday): This is the first time in 14 years Purdue has cracked the Top 25. After going 4-8 and 2-4 the last two years, fans are going to be sky-high. Purdue’s defense leads the way as the ground game is averaging just 2.8 ypc while rotating QBs Aidan O’Connell (6 TDs, 5 INTs) and Jack Plummer (7 TDs, no INTs). Wisconsin is on a 19-10 spread run on the road but doesn’t scare anyone offensively with two QBs combining for 3 TDs, 9 picks. The Badgers are 11-3 ATS against the Boilermakers, including covering 7 straight at Purdue.

Chiefs at Titans: This looks like an AFC playoff preview. Kansas City has lost 3 of 5 despite being favored in every game. QB Patrick Mahomes (18 TDs, 8 INTs) leads a star-studded offense that is second in total yards (433.5). It’s the defense that’s been awful, #27 in yards and points (29.3 pg) allowed, #29 on third down. KC is on a 4-13 spread run, 4-12 ATS as a favorite. Tennessee is rounding into form off wins at Jacksonville (37-19) and at home against the Bills (34-31). The game plan is obvious: hand the ball off to power back Derrick Henry (783 yards) 25+ times. These teams haven’t met since 2019 when Tennessee won the regular-season meeting, 35-32, then the Chiefs won the AFC Championship, 35-24. NFL teams with a winning record like the Titans are 113-184 ATS off an upset win as a home dog.

Jim Hurley is also a strong finisher, cashing consistently for decades with sides, totals, parlays, and coveted high end releases. He can help build your bankroll right through the Super Bowl. Get on board Jim Hurley’s Network by calling 1-800-323-4453 or direct 1-516-669-7819, or online at VegasSportsMaster.pro. 

Jim Hurley is counting CA$H daily because his business is only about WINNING! Start increasing your bankroll TODAY with Jim Hurley’s Network by calling 1-800-323-4453 or direct 1-516-669-7819, or online at VegasSportsMaster.pro.