There’s No ‘D’ in ACC +
NFL Turnover Margin ATS Success
The ACC has no trouble recruiting offensive players, but outside of Clemson can they find any NFL talent on defense? Two weeks ago NC State scored 41 points at home….and still lost to Miami giving up 44 points and 630 yards. The same day Virginia Tech gave up 38 to Liberty in a home loss, North Carolina hung 56 on Duke, Pitt beat Florida State 41-17, while No. 1 Clemson lost at Notre Dame, 47-40.
This past weekend, North Carolina gave up 53 at home to Wake Forest….and still won, 59-53. Both teams had over 600 yards! Go back to Week 9 and you find V-Tech winning at Louisville, 42-35, and Virginia beating UNC, 44-41. Totals players must love ACC action with all these points. And bettors loved my Big 10 Parlay of the Week Saturday, cashing with Indiana and Purdue, alongside a Pac 12 Stunner (Colorado). Another winning NFL Sunday, too, including the Rams and Giants. If you want to join the winning, get on board Jim Hurley’s Network online at VegasSportsMaster.pro, or a free phone call to 1-646-526-2559.
Let’s look at a pair of football previews to start the new week, then delve into a recap of the football wagering weekend.
Vikings/Bears Monday Night: A good Black and Blue division battle between a pair of teams looking up at first-place Green Bay. Minnesota has bounced back from an 0-3 start to win three of five. And it’s been an impressive run, winning at the Packers (28-22) and losing at Seattle by just a point. They’re on a 5-1 spread run, as well as 47-33 ATS in division action. QB Kirk Cousins (15 TDs, 10 INTs) hasn’t been that good, though the offense is #10 in total yards, third in rushing (160.4 yards per game). It’s the defense that is most interesting, ranked poorly in yards allowed (fourth-most in the league), but they’ve used 7 rookies and have been getting better. The last two weeks they held the Packers to 22 and the Lions to 20 points, both wins and the lowest totals scored by those opponents. The Vikings are 6-2 OVER the total for the year.
Chicago started 5-1 but has fallen apart since, riding a three-game skid. In fairness, it’s been against good teams, losing 24-10 at the Rams, losing by a field goal to the Saints, and a 24-17 loss at Tennessee. The defense is the strength of the team, seventh in points allowed (21.1 pg), but the offense has been terrible using QBs Nick Foles (10 TDs, 7 INTS) and Mitch Trubisky (6 TDs, 3 INTS). The QBs have no ground game to help them out, last in the NFL in rushing (82.3 ppg). Chicago is fourth-worst offensively in yards and points (19.8) per game. The Bears are 14-3 SU/ATS at Soldier Field versus the Vikings, the home team is 25-10 ATS when they clash, and the UNDER is 12-5.
Western Michigan at Central Michigan Preview (Wednesday): Two 2-0 teams in the MAC West square off for first place. Western is off a thrilling victory over Toledo, 41-38, needing 20 fourth-quarter points to overcome a 10-point deficit. They won despite allowing 501 yards. Western Michigan sophomore QB Kaleb Eleby has 6 TDs, no picks after two games, picking up where he left off two years ago after sitting out last season.
They will need to improve that ‘D’ against a Central Michigan squad off an 8-6 campaign in 2019, winning the MAC West and nearly winning at Miami-Florida in a 17-12 Hurricane victory. However, one of those losses was to this Western Michigan bunch and it was ugly, getting blasted 31-15 (down 24-0 in the fourth). They have an excellent head coach in Jim McElwain, who inherited a program that was 1-11 in 2018 but won the West in his first season. What’s different about this team is freshman QB Dan Richardson (3 TDs, 1 INT) winning the job. Coach McElwain is a proponent of a balanced attack and CM has run for 421 yards in two games. So rivalry and revenge will be in the air Wednesday.
Sloppy Trojans: The U.S.C. Trojans are unbeaten but doing everything imaginable not to be. They’ve been double-digit favorites in two games but had to hang on for dear life just to win. Down 27-14 with three minutes left in the opener, they pulled off an improbable rally to stun Arizona State, 28-27. On Saturday, more of the same, scoring a TD with 25 seconds left to nip Arizona, 34-30. 2-0 is great, but USC’s offense had 4 turnovers in the opener while the defense allowed 258 yards rushing. In Week 2, U.S.C. allowed 444 yards (158 rushing) and has committed 16 penalties in two games. Moneyline bettors on the underdogs in both USC games won’t need combs — they are surely bald after pulling all their hair out.
NFL Dog Day Afternoon: It started Thursday night when the underdog Colts rolled at Tennessee, 34-17, and continued Sunday. What stood out was the bad teams keeping it close. The Redskins did just enough to lose, as usual, 30-27. The early money went on the Browns at home, but the dog covered as the Texans racked up another loss, 10-7. And the two-TD underdog Jaguars gave first-place Green Bay a run in a 24-20 game. Jacksonville has only one victory, but has lost close defeats to Houston (27-25) and Tennessee (33-30).
The home dog Giants have covered four straight after a 27-17 victory over the Eagles. Philly QB Carson Wentz was sacked 3 times and failed to throw a touchdown, now with 12 TDs, 12 picks on the season. Wentz was the No. 2 pick in the 2016 NFL draft with Jared Goff going No. 1. The QBs taken after them were Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler, and Connor Cook, all in the third and fourth round. No QB diamonds in the rough in that draft, but plenty of scuffed up fool’s gold. Only Dak Prescott (fourth round) stands out as a late draft keeper.
Surprising Raiders/ Streaking Steelers: The Las Vegas Raiders continue to overachieve after a 37-12 win over Denver. It’s amazing how one NFL blunder can change momentum. Denver was down 10-6 in the final seconds of the first half and appeared to score the go-ahead TD, but a foolish (and unnecessary) holding penalty in the end zone nullified it. On the next play, QB Drew Lock threw one of his three picks and the Raiders had the lead and momentum at the break. The Broncos didn’t show up in the second half getting outscored 27-6.
Pittsburgh moved to 9-0 after routing the rebuilding Bengals. Home games against the Ravens and Colts, along with road trips to Buffalo and Cleveland, will be their main challenges for a 16-0 regular season. The Steelers are near the bottom of the NFL offensively in yards gained. It’s the defense that is dominant, Top 10 in total yards, passing yards, rush yards, and points allowed. Turnover margin can be a huge indicator of success or struggle both straight up at ATS. And the Steelers are tops in turnover margin (+11), as well as 7-2 against the spread.