THE SEC IS BACK (HIP, HIP, HOORAY!) BUT ARE THE NUMBER-CRUNCHERS – AND THE PUBLIC TOO — GIVING #2 ‘BAMA, #4 GEORGIA, #5 FLORIDA, #6 LSU, #8 AUBURN AND #10 TEXAS A&M TOO MUCH RESPECT? …
OUR NFL WEEK 3 RUNDOWN:
BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE JAGS WILL ATTEMPT TO BE THE LEAGUE’S FIRST 3-AND-OH SPREAD SIDE THIS YEAR
COVID-19 be damned, sez the Southeastern Conference. The far-and-away best league in the land in the college football universe stepped back from the virus and decided to kick off its 2020 season a few weeks “late” but here comes SEC Football and not a moment too soon!
In fact, check out the current week’s Associated Press Top 25 poll and you’ll discover the following: There are eight SEC teams (out of the league’s 14 squads) these days that reside in the AP Top 25 and #2 Alabama, #4 Georgia, #5 Florida, #6 LSU (yes, the defending national champion), #8 Auburn and #10 Texas A&M comprise 60 percent of this week’s top 10 teams but our question right here and right now is this: Are these SEC top 10 teams seemingly all being required to lay a larger-than-normal price this Saturday?
#2 ALABAMA is a 26.5-point betting favorite at Missouri (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) even though the Crimson Tide will be led by relative unknown Mac Jones at quarterback. Hey, ‘Bama is a mere 9-9-1 ATS (against the spread) as betting favs of 25-or-more points since the start of 2017 and Mizzou could be dangerous with brand-new head coach Eliah Drinkwitz calling the shots. Ask us and we say the Tide should be a 3-TD fav … and nothing more.
#4 GEORGIA is a 26-point betting favorite against rag-tag Arkansas yet the Bulldogs likely didn’t know D’wan Mathis would be their starting quarterback here till just a few days ago. The 6-foot-6 redshirt frosh leaps into the void left by opt-out transfer Jamie Newman (from Wake Forest) and one-time USC starter J.T. Daniels. Toss in the fact that there’s a new Dawgs’ offensive coordinator in Todd Monken and yet Georgia’s still a 26-point fav. Hmmm. Our power ratings / home field charts say Georgia should be favored by only 18 or 19 points.
#5 FLORIDA is a haughty 14.5-point betting favorite at rebuilding Ole Miss and that means the Gators must cover a huge road price against new Rebels’ boss Lane Kiffin. True, Florida is loaded this year and even that O-line appears a strong suit but Ole Miss did cover six-of-eight SEC games in 2019 in a down year. Okay, we’re saying the price still is 2 or 2.5 points too rich.
#6 LSU is a bloated 16.5-point favorite versus visiting Miss State and the 2019 national champions are famously having to replace 14 or 15 starters from last year’s perfecto crew. Maybe Bayou Bengals’ boss Ed Orgeron – fresh off a starring role last weekend on 60 Minutes – had all the answer en route to last season’s 15-and-oh squad but having to buck heads with passing guru head coach Mike Leach here is no walk in the park.
#8 AUBURN is a 7.5-point home betting fav against 23rd-ranked Kentucky – note War Eagle opened as a 9.5-point betting fav – and can’t ignore the fact Auburn is an ordinary 20-19 spreadwise in all games since late 2016.
And #19 TEXAS A&M currently is a 30.5-point betting fav against Vanderbilt in Saturday’s tilt in College Station. Again, that’s a huge price tag (A&M is 0-3-1 vig-wise as 30-point-or-larger favorites since early 2015) and one only the so-called cigar smokers would be comfortable with and our rankings, etc. say the Aggies should be no more than a 24-point chalk-eater here.
Extra, extra …
Get all this weekend’s NCAA Football game-day winners right here at VegasSportsMaster.pro or when you call our toll-free telephone # of 1-888-777-4155. Remember we’ve really bashed the books so far in 2020 with college winners last weekend including Miami over Louisville and Louisiana Tech over Southern Miss to say nothing of the NFL Week 2 winners with the Atlanta Falcons (+ 2.5) and the 4.5-point underdog New York Giants both cashing in close SU (straight-up) losses.
OUR NFL WEEK 3 UPDATE
Go ahead and raise your hand if you believed the Jacksonville Jaguars were gonna be the first team in this year’s NFL to pound out a 3-and-oh pointspread mark … sure, the Jags playing host to 3-point underdog Miami in this Thursday Night Football clash allows ‘em that opportunity here on this autumn evening but let us point out the following:
The Jaguars – who’ve already covered Indianapolis and Tennessee thus far in ’20 – are a cumulative 27-43-3 against the odds when playing outside the AFC South since the start of the 2013 campaign (that’s a crummy .386 winning rate, folks) but a pointspread win here in prime-time against the Dolphins would allow Doug Marrone’s squad its first 3-0 ATS start in more than a decade.
But why stretch your brain to figure out which side or total on Thursday night’s Prime Time play when you can simply check in with Jim?
After Monday night’s DOUBLE DIP with the Raiders (+5.5) outright over the Saints and OVER the 48.5 points in Las Vegas’ 34-24 victory, Jim is now 8-1 his last 9 with BLUE RIBBON SERVICE PLAYS.
By the way — and you can look it up – last year the Dallas Cowboys, the Green Bay Packers, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams all began the year with 3-and-oh spread marks and not a single one of ‘em started at 4-0 against the odds.
One pointspread “W” at a time, Jags … okay?
In case you were wondering, the other NFL teams gunning for a 3-0 spread start include: Arizona, Baltimore, Denver, Green Bay, Las Vegas, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle.
Let’s remind you that we’ll have more in-depth NFL Week 3 coverage in our next column but we say goodbye for today with our “NFL Pointspread Fact of the Day”:
The Minnesota Vikings have not lost three in a row spreadwise in 60 games, yet Mike Zimmer’s club faces that daunting issue Sunday as smallish home dogs against Tennessee. That’s right, gotta go back to the middle of the 2016 season to find the last time Minny flopped three times in a row against the odds and back then they failed to cover four in a row.
Editor’s Note … There’s plenty of NFL Week 3, NCAA Football and lots more goodies straight ahead in our next web piece, so don’t miss out and remember get all the winners from Football, Major-League Baseball and the NBA Playoffs here at VegasSportsMaster.pro … make sure your 2020 profits keep rollin’ in.