JIM HURLEY SEZ…VEGAS LINE BEATS THE PUBLIC AND I BEAT THE VEGAS LINE
Finding Hidden Value In College Basketball
I have often received e-mails, texts, even phone calls to my representatives in which players will (though for the most part politely) question how I can claim to take dozens or more factors into handicapping a single game, and what are these “hidden factors” I am always talking about.
The contention implies that there are not that many factors, and furthermore, what are these “hidden factors” that the public is either not aware of or pays no attention to?
Today I want to address this and can best do so by giving you a very specific example that completely supports my claim to these “hidden factors” and how they greatly add to my winning record.
Claim One – This is something you hear me say repeatedly. The Vegas Line-Maker posts a line based on How The Public Bets and Not On The Merits Of Any Individual Matchup.
Last night, for the third time in my last three releases against Stephen F. Austin, my customers cashed the winning dog. In order to support my claim that the line-maker, in posting lines based on how the public bets and not the dynamics or factors of any given matchup I will take you back to a game at Cameron Indoor Arena on November 26. That was the night that Stephen F. Austin, a 28 point dog Beat Duke Outright 85-83 in overtime.
Ever since that monumental national news upset, the public has been aware of the Lumberjacks. And the consensus seems to be…if they can beat Duke at Cameron Indoor they should be a cinch to handle their competition in the Southland Conference. And indeed they have handled those opponents as they stand atop the league at 13-1. But straight up and against the spread are different worlds and what better way to show you this than to use the last 10 games of Stephen F. Austin in which they were the favorite every time…three of which were used as Dog Winners for my clients.
2/12 – Texas A&M-CC (+9)…SFA 75-67…ATS L…Hurley W
2/8 – New Orleans (+16)…SFA 81-74…ATS L
2/5 – Nicholls St. (+9.5)…SFA 70-64…ATS L…Hurley W
2/1 – Sam Houston St. (+1.5)…SFA 81-76…ATS W
1/29 – Abilene Christian (+8)…SFA 71-61…ATS W
1/25 – Lamar (+5)…SFA 70-62…ATS W
1/22 – NW State (+9.5)…SFA 69-62…ATS L
1/18 – Incarnate Word (+22)…SFA 80-56…ATS W
1/15 – Central Arkansas (+9)…SFA 77-76…ATS L…Hurley W
1/8 – Texas A&M (+17) SFA 72-73 (Outright Loss)…ATS L
See what I mean about that upset of Duke back on November 26 and how as good as Stephen F Austin is in the Southland, the public has over-evaluated them from the start and we have taken advantage of the value. Look at it in one final way. In their 4 spread Wins the Lumberjacks have had an average winning spread margin of a nail-biting 2.8 points whereas in their 6 spread losses the point margin to the dog player has been a comfortable 7.8 points.
Now, imagine applying that sort of public betting pattern data to all 353 teams to see where else such value resides. That is what I do. Hope that answers one of those questions I regularly receive.
BIG ANGLES AND HIDDEN FACTORS AT PLAY THIS WEEKEND
I guarantee you I’ll be presenting plenty of Winning Opportunity this coming weekend. It begins with Mid-Major Conference Action on Friday…followed by my February Grand Slam Saturday and wrapping up with a Trio of TV Plays on Sunday. Look at the Lineup:
- Friday 2/14 – Double Dog Night Gets It Started
CASH 13-5 PARLAY ODDS ON MAAC & IVY DOGS OF WEEK
- Saturday 2/15 – FEBRUARY GRAND SLAM
Key Showdowns Are Everywhere On The Saturday Schedule
Oklahoma/Kansas…West Virginia/Baylor…Illinois Rutgers…Maryland/Michigan State…Seton Hall/Providence…Purdue/Ohio State…Mississippi State/Arkansas…VCU/Richmond…eastern Kentucky/Austin Peay…And More (My 4 Best GRAND SLAM SHOWDOWN WINNERS PAYS 10-1 ODDS)
- Sunday 2/16 – TV WATCH & WIN TRIPLE PLAY
Weekend wraps up with this 2-0 Sweep
Best from TV Plays like Cincinnati/East Carolina (CBSSN)…Villanova/Temple (ESPN)…Iowa/Minnesota (FS1)…Indiana/Michigan (CBS)…Tulane/Wichita State (CBSSN)…Memphis/UConn (ESPN)…San Diego State/Boise State (CBSSN)…NC State/Boston College (ACCN)…Utah/Oregon (FS1)